The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail S but Some Don’t 1st edition by Nate Silver – Ebook PDF Instant Download/Delivery: 0143125087, 978-0143125082
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Product details:
ISBN 10: 0143125087
ISBN 13: 978-0143125082
Author: Nate Silver
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation’s foremost political forecaster—updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and polling
One of The Wall Street Journal’s Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year
“Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”—The New York Times Book Review
Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability—as well as a healthy dose of humility.
With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail S but Some Don’t 1st Table of contents:
1: A CATASTROPHIC FAILURE OF PREDICTION
2: ARE YOU SMARTER THAN A TELEVISION PUNDIT?
3: ALL I CARE ABOUT IS W’S AND L’S
4: FOR YEARS YOU’VE BEEN TELLING US THAT RAIN IS GREEN
5: DESPERATELY SEEKING SIGNAL
6: HOW TO DROWN IN THREE FEET OF WATER
7: ROLE MODELS
8: LESS AND LESS AND LESS WRONG
9: RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINES
10: THE POKER BUBBLE
11: IF YOU CAN’T BEAT ’EM . . .
12: A CLIMATE OF HEALTHY SKEPTICISM
13: WHAT YOU DON’T KNOW CAN HURT YOU
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Tags: Nate Silver, The Signal, Many Predictions