Forecasting and Management of Technology 2nd edition by Alan Porter, Scott Cunningham, Jerry Banks, Thomas Roper, Thomas Mason, Frederick Rossini ISBN 0470440902 978-0470440902

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ISBN 10: 0470440902
ISBN 13: 978-0470440902
Author: Alan Porter, Scott Cunningham, Jerry Banks, Thomas Roper, Thomas Mason, Frederick Rossini 

Published in 1991, the first edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology was one of the leading handful of books to deal with the topic of forecasting of technology and technology management as this discipline was emerging. The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development. The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting and analysis content that the first edition is reputed for.

Updated by the original author team, plus new author Scott Cunningham, the book takes into account what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers. Included in this book will be 5 case studies from various industries that show how technology management is applied in the real world.

Forecasting and Management of Technology 2nd Table of contents:

1 Introduction

1.1 About This Book

1.2 Technology and Society

1.2.1 Social Change

1.2.2 Technological Change

1.3 Management and the Future

1.3.1 Management and Innovation Processes

1.3.2 The Role of Technology Forecasting

1.3.3 The Importance of Technology Forecasting

1.3.4 The Role of Social Forecasting

1.4 Conclusions

References

2 Technology Forecasting

2.1 What Is Technology Forecasting?

2.1.1 Models of Technology Growth and Diffusion

2.1.2 Technology Forecasting in Context

2.1.3 What Makes a Forecast Good?

2.1.4 Common Errors in Forecasting Technology

2.2 Methodological Foundations

2.2.1 The Technology Delivery System

2.2.2 Inquiring Systems

2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods

2.3.1 Overview of the Most Frequently Used Forecasting Methods

2.3.2 Method Selection

2.4 Conclusion

References

3 Managing the Forecasting Project

3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project

3.1.1 The Technology Manager’s Needs

3.1.2 The Forecast Manager’s Needs

3.1.3 Information about Team Members

3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast

3.3 Team Organization, Management, and Communications

3.3.1 Organizing and Managing the Technology Forecast

3.3.2 Communications

3.3.3 Summary Conclusions about Project Management and Organization

3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time

3.5 Project Scheduling

3.5.1 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

3.5.2 Gantt Chart

3.5.3 Project Accountability Chart (PAC)

3.5.4 Project Scheduling Software

3.6 Conclusions

References

4 Exploring

4.1 Establishing the Context—the TDS

4.1.1 Societal and Institutional Contexts

4.1.2 Technology Context

4.1.3 Stakeholders

4.1.4 Understanding the TDS

4.1.5 An Example TDS Model

4.2 Monitoring

4.2.1 Why Monitor?

4.2.2 Who Should Monitor?

4.2.3 Monitoring Strategy

4.2.4 Monitoring Focused on Management of Technology Issues

4.2.5 Monitoring Focused on the Stage of the Technology Development

4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity

4.3.1 Five Elements of Creativity

4.3.2 Group Creativity

4.4 Conclusion

References

5 Gathering and Using Information

5.1 Expert Opinion

5.1.1 Selecting Experts

5.1.2 Selecting Expert Opinion Techniques

5.2 Gathering Information on the Internet

5.2.1 Science and Technology on the Internet

5.2.2 Society and Culture on the Internet

5.3 Structuring the Search

5.4 Preparing Search Results

5.5 Using Search Results

5.6 Developing Science, Technology, and Social Indicators

5.6.1 Science and Technology Indicators

5.6.2 Social Indicators

5.7 Communicating Search Results

5.8 Conclusions

References

6 Analyzing Phase

6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods

6.1.1 Overview and Caveats

6.1.2 Internet Time Series Data and Trends

6.1.3 Analytical Modeling

6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions

6.3 Growth Models

6.3.1 The Models

6.3.2 Dealing with the Data

6.3.3 Regression and Growth Modeling: What Can Go Wrong?

6.4 Simulation

6.4.1 Quantitative Cross-Impact Analysis

6.4.2 Qualitative Cross-Impact Analysis

6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation

6.5.1 Generating and Displaying Random Values

6.5.2 Sampling Multiple Random Variables

6.5.3 RFID Application in a Hospital Decision

6.6 System Dynamics

6.6.1 The System Dynamics Modeling Cycle

6.6.2 A Technology Forecasting Example: The Cable-to-the-Curb Model

6.7 Gaming

6.7.1 Decision Trees

6.7.2 Bayesian Estimation

6.7.3 Value of Information

6.7.4 Real Options Analysis

6.8 Software Suggestions

6.8.1 Software for Regression

6.8.2 Simulation Analysis Software

6.8.3 Software for Analysis of Decisions

6.8.4 Real Options Super Lattice Software

6.8.5 Software Sites

References

7 Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis

7.1 Uncertainty

7.1.1 Uncertainty Frameworks

7.1.2 Source and Nature of Uncertainty

7.1.3 Uncertainty and the Adaptive Paradigm

7.1.4 Techniques for Addressing Uncertainty

7.2 Scenarios

7.2.1 Steps in Creating Scenarios

7.2.2 Types of Scenarios

7.3 Examples and Applications

7.3.1 Scenarios for Renewable Energy Planning

7.3.2 Pervasive Computing Scenarios

7.3.3 Scenarios for Social Change

7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques

7.4.1 Scenarios in Multimethodology Forecasts

7.4.2 Extensions of Scenario Analysis

7.5 Conclusions

References

8 Economic and Market Analysis

8.1 The Context

8.1.1 Markets and Innovation

8.1.2 Technology and Institutions

8.2 Forecasting the Market

8.2.1 The Consumer/Customer Marketplace

8.2.2 Qualitative Techniques for Appraising Market Potential

8.2.3 A Quantitative Approach—Adoption and Substitution: S-Curve Models

8.3 Forecasting the Economic Context

8.3.1 Macroeconomic Forecasting

8.3.2 Input-Output Analysis

8.3.3 General Equilibrium Models

8.3.4 Hedonic Technometrics

8.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context

8.4.1 Institutional Arrangements and the Market

8.4.2 Game Theory

8.4.3 Agent-Based Models

8.5 Conclusion

References

9 Impact Assessment

9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting

9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology

9.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment

9.4 Impact Identification

9.4.1 Scanning Techniques

9.4.2 Tracing Techniques

9.4.3 Narrowing the Impact Set and Estimating Effects

9.4.4 A Final Word

9.5 Impact Analysis

9.5.1 Analyzing Impacts on and Impacts of the Technology

9.5.2 Analyzing Technological Impacts

9.5.3 Analyzing Economic Impacts

9.5.4 Analyzing Environmental Impacts

9.5.5 Analyzing Social Impacts

9.5.6 Analyzing Institutional Impacts

9.5.7 Analyzing Political Impacts

9.5.8 Analyzing Legal and Regulatory Impacts

9.5.9 Analyzing Behavioral, Cultural, and Values Impacts

9.5.10 Analyzing Health-Related Impacts

9.6 Impact Evaluation

9.7 Conclusion

References

10 Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis

10.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices

10.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis

10.2.1 Cost-Benefit Analysis within the Organization

10.2.2 Societal Stake and the Organizational Response

10.2.3 Cost-Benefit Analysis Methods

10.2.4 Economic Value Added

10.2.5 Earned Value Management

10.2.6 The Balanced Scorecard

10.3 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty

10.3.1 Accounting for Risk within Organizations

10.3.2 Accounting for Risk—the Social Dimension

10.4 Concluding the Focusing Phase

References

11 Implementing the Technology

11.1 Forecasting Continues

11.2 Implementation Issues

11.3 Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation

11.4 Selecting from among Alternative Implementations of the Technology

11.4.1 Measurement

11.4.2 Interpretive Structural Modeling

11.4.3 Analytic Hierarchy Process

11.4.4 Wrap-Up

11.5 Technology Roadmapping

11.6 Summary and Concluding Observations

References

12 Managing the Present from the Future

12.1 The Overall Approach

12.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques

12.2.1 Using the TDS and the Major Families of Techniques

12.2.2 The 80–20 Rule

12.3 Alternative Perspectives

12.4 Learning from Past Forecasts and Assessments

12.5 Visions

12.6 A Final Word

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Tags: Alan Porter, Scott Cunningham, Jerry Banks, Thomas Roper, Thomas Mason, Frederick Rossini, Forecasting and Management