Perception and Misperception in International Politics 1st edition by Robert Jervis – Ebook PDF Instant Download/Delivery: 0691175853, 978-0691175850
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ISBN 10: 0691175853
ISBN 13: 978-0691175850
Author: Robert Jervis
Since its original publication in 1976, Perception and Misperception in International Politics has become a landmark book in its field, hailed by the New York Times as “the seminal statement of principles underlying political psychology.” This new edition includes an extensive preface by the author reflecting on the book’s lasting impact and legacy, particularly in the application of cognitive psychology to political decision making, and brings that analysis up to date by discussing the relevant psychological research over the past forty years. Jervis describes the process of perception (for example, how decision makers learn from history) and then explores common forms of misperception (such as overestimating one’s influence). He then tests his ideas through a number of important events in international relations from nineteenth- and twentieth-century European history. Perception and Misperception in International Politics is essential for understanding international relations today.
Perception and Misperception in International Politics 1st Table of contents:
Introduction
Part I: The Setting
Chapter One: Perception and the Level of Analysis Problem
Do Perceptions Matter?
The International Environment
Compulsion in Extreme Circumstances?
Domestic Determinants
The Bureaucracy
Perceptions, Reality, and a Two-Step Model
Chapter Two: External Stimuli, Internal Processes, and Intentions
Introduction
External versus Internal Sources of Behavior
Intentions
Inaccurate Predictions about One’s Own Behavior
Chapter Three: Deterrence, the Spiral Model, and Intentions of the Adversary
Two Views of International Relations and the Cold War
Deterrence
The Spiral Model
Psychological Dynamics
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies and Problems with Incrementalism
Self-Defeating Power
Prescriptions
Universal Generalizations?
Evidence against the Spiral Model
Evidence against Deterrence
Deterrence and World War II; Spiral Model and World War I
When Will Force and Threats Work? The Decision-Maker’s Choice
When Will Force and Threats Work? Hypotheses
Perceptions of Intention and Analyses of What Is at Stake
Other Explanations for the Differences between the Spiral and Deterrence Theories
Differences in Values
Claims for a Dominant Strategy
Dangers of Applying Gradualism to an Aggressive Adversary
Suggestions
Part II: Processes of Perception
Chapter Four: Cognitive Consistency and the Interaction between Theory and Data
Consistency: Rational and Irrational
Rational Consistency
Cognitive-Affective Balance
Source-Message Interaction
Implications
Irrational Consistency—Avoidance of Value Trade-Offs
Assimilation of Information to Pre-existing Beliefs
The Impact of Expectations on Perceptions
The Necessary Interdependence of Facts and Theories
The Interdependence between Facts and Theories in Science
The Impact of Categorization
Different Theories, Different Perceptions
The Emergence of New Theories and Images
Cognitive Distortion and Implications for Decision-Making
Failure to Recognize the Influence of Pre-Existing Beliefs
Excessive and Premature Cognitive Closure
Implications for Decision-Making
Confidence, Commitment, and Ambiguity
Implications for Decision-Making
Chapter Five: The Impact of the Evoked Set
Evoked Set in the Absence of Communication
Communication and Estimating the Evoked Set of the Other
Misunderstandings within a Government: Differences in Information, Perspectives, and Time Lags
Uneven Distribution of Information within Governments
Differences in Evoked Set Caused by Differences in Concerns
Conclusions
Chapter Six: How Decision-Makers Learn from History
Introduction
Lessons as Predispositions
Alternative Explanations
The Learning Process
Organizational Learning
Events from Which People Learn Most
Firsthand Experiences
Some Consequences
Alternative Explanations
Early Experiences and Generational Effects
Generational Effects
Alternative Explanations
Delayed Impact on Policy
Events Important to the Person’s State or Organization
Revolutions
The Last War
Range of Available Alternative Analogies
What Lessons Do People Learn?
Impact of Constant Factors
Lessons about Specific Actors
Reactions to Failure
Nothing Fails like Success
Alternative Explanations
Summary
Appendix: The Impact of Domestic Politics and Training on Perceptual Predispositions
Learning from Domestic Politics
Training
Chapter Seven: Attitude Change
Introduction
Mechanisms of Attitude Preservation and Change
Centrality
The Rate at Which Discrepant Information Is Received
Beliefs Especially Resistant to Discrepant Information
Part III: Common Misperceptions
Chapter Eight: Perceptions of Centralization
Unity and Planning
Plans, Not Accidents and Confusion
One Actor, Not Several
Special Cases
Variables Encouraging the Perception of Unity and Planning
Being Misinformed about One’s Own Behavior
Misinformation about Physical Effects
Disobedience by Agents
Causes of Disobedience
Types of Disobedience
Consequences of Lack of Awareness of Agents’ Behavior
Consequences of Perceptions of Unity and Planning
Chapter Nine: Overestimating One’s Importance as Influence or Target
Introduction
Overestimating One’s Effectiveness
Perceptions of Influence and Turning Points
Injury and Perceptions of the Other’s Autonomy
Belief that the Other Understands that You Are Not a Threat
Chapter Ten: The Influence of Desires and Fears on Perceptions
Wishful Thinking
Experiments: Lack of Incentives for Accuracy
Desires or Expectations?
Direct Impact of Affect
Experimental Manipulation of Affect
Judgments of Desirability and Probability
Other Experiments
Wishful Thinking in International Relations
Perceptions of Danger: Vigilance or Defense?
Avoidance of Perceptions of Extreme Probabilities
Summary
Chapter Eleven: Cognitive Dissonance and International Relations
Cognitive Dissonance Theory
Cognitive Dissonance and Inertia
The Magnitude of Dissonance
The Impact of Spending Resources
Incentives and Compulsion
Boomerang Effects
Summary
Part IV: In Lieu of Conclusions
Chapter Twelve: Minimizing Misperception
Making Assumptions and Predictions Explicit
Devil’s Advocates
Conversions
Identities and Missions
Awareness of Common Misperceptions
Bibliography
Index
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