Politics and Big Data Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media 1st edition by Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini, Stefano Maria Iacus ISBN 1317134133 9781317134138

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Product details:

ISBN 10: 1317134133
ISBN 13: 9781317134138
Author: Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini, Stefano Maria Iacus

The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of “sentiment analysis” to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate “sentiment analysis” can prove.

Politics and Big Data Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media 1st Table of contents:

Introduction

1 Social media electoral forecasts: an overview

2 From noise to signal in sentiment and opinion analysis

3 Nowcasting and forecasting electoral campaigns: evidence from France, the United States and Italy

4 Leaders, promises and negative campaigning: digging into an electoral campaign through social media

5 Social media and electoral forecasts: sources of bias and meta-analysis

6 Conclusion: “To predict or not to predict?” Future avenues of social media research within and beyond electoral forecasts

Postscript

Index

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Andrea Ceron,Luigi Curini,Stefano Maria Iacus,Big Data,Forecasting Elections