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Principles of Risk Analysis Decision Making Under Uncertainty 1st edition by Charles Yoe 1439857490 9781439857496

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ISBN 10: 1439857490

ISBN 13: 9781439857496

Author:  Charles Yoe

In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions “what is risk analysis?” and “how do I do this?”

Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages.

The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis.

Principles of Risk Analysis Decision Making Under Uncertainty 1st Table of contents:

Part 1: Introduction to Risk Analysis

The Basics

1.1 What is Risk?

1.2 What Is Risk Analysis?

1.3 Why Conduct Risk Analysis?

1.4 Who Performs Risk Analysis?

1.5 When Should Risk Analysis Be Conducted?

1.6 Organization of the Book

Part 2: Understanding Uncertainty
2. Uncertainty

2.1 Understanding Uncertainty from a High Level

2.2 Assessing Uncertainty in Daily Operations

2.3 Intentional Approaches to Managing Uncertainty

Part 3: Risk Management Framework
3. Risk Management

3.1 Identifying Problems and Opportunities

3.2 Estimating Risk

3.3 Evaluating Risk

3.4 Controlling Risk

3.5 Monitoring Risk

3.6 Models of Risk Management

Part 4: Risk Assessment Process
4. Risk Assessment

4.1 Characteristics of a Good Risk Assessment

4.2 Key Definitions in Risk Assessment

4.3 Activities Involved in Risk Assessment

4.4 Models of Risk Assessment

4.5 Methods for Risk Assessment

Part 5: Communicating Risks
5. Risk Communication

5.1 Key Definitions

5.2 Internal Risk Communication Strategies

5.3 External Risk Communication Approaches

Part 6: Problem Identification and Opportunities
6. Problem Identification for Risk Management

6.1 Defining Problems and Opportunities

6.2 Techniques for Recognizing Problems and Opportunities

6.3 The Problems and Opportunities Statement

6.4 Brainstorming Techniques

6.4.1 Topics for Brainstorming

6.4.2 Background Considerations

6.4.3 Preventing Issues in Your Processes

6.4.4 Techniques for Effective Brainstorming

6.4.5 Using 3× Yeah for Evaluation

6.4.6 Group Evaluations with Colored Dots

6.4.7 The Role of a Facilitator

Part 7: Economic Principles in Risk Management
7. Addendum

7.1 Understanding Opportunity Costs and Trade-Offs

7.2 Economic Principles for Risk Managers

7.2.1 Economics and Decision-Making Processes

7.2.2 Economic Interactions Among Individuals

7.2.3 Principles of Overall Economic Activity

7.2.4 Making Trade-Offs

7.2.5 Conducting Economic Analysis

Part 8: Qualitative Risk Assessment
8. Qualitative Risk Assessment

8.1 Understanding Risk as Probability × Consequence

8.2 A Generic Process for Assessment

8.3 Exploring More or Less Risk

8.4 Creating Risk Narratives

8.5 Utilizing Evidence Maps

8.6 Ordering Techniques and Risk Matrix

8.7 Qualitative Risk Assessment Models

8.8 Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

8.9 A Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment Example

Part 9: Risk Assessment Modeling
9. The Art and Practice of Risk Assessment Modeling

9.1 Types of Risk Models

9.2 The Model-Building Process

9.3 Simulation Models and Required Skills

Part 10: Understanding Probability
10. Probability Review

10.1 The Two Schools of Thought in Probability

10.2 Essentials of Probability

10.3 Obtaining Probabilities

10.4 Working with Probabilities

10.5 Importance of Understanding Probabilities

10.6 Choosing Probability Distributions

10.6.1 Graphical Review of Distributions

10.6.2 Strategies for Selecting a Distribution

10.6.3 Examples of Distribution Choices

10.6.4 Useful Probability Distributions for Risk Assessment

Part 11: Probability Elicitation
11. Probability Elicitation

11.1 Understanding Probability Words

11.2 Subjective Probability and When to Elicit

11.3 Making Judgments Under Uncertainty

11.4 Responding to Heuristics

11.5 The Elicitation Protocol and Calibration

11.6 Involving Multiple Experts

Part 12: Monte Carlo Process
12. Monte Carlo Process

12.1 Overview of the Process

12.2 A Two-Step Approach

12.3 Determining the Number of Iterations

12.4 Sampling Methods and Illustrations

Part 13: Probabilistic Scenario Analysis
13. Probabilistic Scenario Analysis

13.1 Common Types of Scenarios

13.2 Types of Scenario Comparisons

13.3 Tools for Constructing Scenarios

13.4 Incorporating Probability into Scenarios

13.5 Illustrative Examples

Part 14: Sensitivity Analysis
14. Sensitivity Analysis

14.1 Qualitative vs. Quantitative Sensitivity Analysis

14.2 Importance of Sensitivity Analysis

Part 15: Presenting Assessment Results
15. Presenting and Using Assessment Results

15.1 Understanding Assessment Output Data

15.2 Analyzing Quantities and Probabilities

15.3 Exploring Relationships and Answering Key Questions

15.4 Data Visualization Techniques

Part 16: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
16. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

16.1 Developing Effective Messages

16.2 Communication Models

16.3 Strategies for Risk Communication

16.4 Crisis Communication Approaches

16.5 Message Mapping Techniques

16.6 Overcoming Impediments to Risk Communication

16.7 Crafting Risk Communication Messages

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