Technical Analysis The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians 3rd edition by Charles Kirkpatrick II, Julie Dahlquist ISBN 0134137162 9780134137162

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ISBN 10: 0134137162
ISBN 13:  9780134137162
Author: Charles Kirkpatrick II, Julie Dahlquist

Master technical analysis, step-by-step! Already the field’s most comprehensive, reliable, and objective introduction, this guidebook has been thoroughly updated to reflect the field’s latest advances.   Selected by the Market Technicians Association as the official companion to its prestigious Chartered Market Technician (CMT) program, Technical Analysis, Third Edition systematically explains the theory of technical analysis, presenting academic evidence both for and against it. Using hundreds of fully updated illustrations and examples, the authors explain the analysis of both markets and individual issues, and present complete investment systems and portfolio management plans. They present authoritative, up-to-date coverage of tested sentiment, momentum indicators, seasonal effects, flow of funds, testing systems, risk mitigation strategies, and many other topics.   Offering 30% new coverage, Technical Analysis, Third Edition thoroughly addresses recent advances in pattern recognition, market analysis, systems management, and confidence testing; Kagi, Renko, Kase, Ichimoku, Clouds, and DeMark indicators; innovations in exit stops, portfolio selection, and testing; implications of behavioral bias, and the recent performance of old formulas and methods. For traders, researchers, and serious investors alike, this is the definitive guide to profiting from technical analysis.

Technical Analysis The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians 3rd Table of contents:

Part I: Introduction

Chapter 1. Introduction to Technical Analysis

Chapter 2. The Basic Principle of Technical Analysis—The Trend

Chapter Objectives

How Does the Technical Analyst Make Money?

What Is a Trend?

How Are Trends Identified?

Trends Develop from Supply and Demand

What Trends Are There?

What Other Assumptions Do Technical Analysts Make?

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 3. History of Technical Analysis

Chapter Objectives

Early Financial Markets and Exchanges

Modern Technical Analysis

Current Advances in Technical Analysis

Chapter 4. The Technical Analysis Controversy

Chapter Objectives

Do Markets Follow a Random Walk?

Fat Tails

Large Unexpected Drawdowns

Proportions of Scale

Can Past Patterns Be Used to Predict the Future?

What About Market Efficiency?

New Information

Are Investors Rational?

Will Arbitrage Keep Prices in Equilibrium?

Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis

Pragmatic Criticisms of Technical Analysis

What Is the Empirical Support for Technical Analysis?

Conclusion

Review Questions

Part II: Markets and Market Indicators

Chapter 5. An Overview of Markets

Chapter Objectives

In What Types of Markets Can Technical Analysis Be Used?

Types of Contracts

Cash Market

Derivative Markets

Swaps and Forwards

How Does a Market Work?

Who Are the Market Players?

How Is the Market Measured?

Price-Weighted Average

Market Capitalization Weighted Average

Equally Weighted (or Geometric) Average

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 6. Dow Theory

Chapter Objectives

Dow Theory Theorems

The Primary Trend

The Secondary Trend

The Minor Trend

Concept of Confirmation

Importance of Volume

Criticisms of the Dow Theory

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 7. Sentiment

Chapter Objectives

What Is Sentiment?

Market Players and Sentiment

How Does Human Bias Affect Decision Making?

Crowd Behavior and the Concept of Contrary Opinion

How Is Sentiment of Uninformed Players Measured?

Sentiment Indicators Based on Options and Volatility

Polls

Other Measures of Contrary Opinion

Unquantifiable Contrary Indicators

Historical Indicators

Unusual Indicators

How Is the Sentiment of Informed Players Measured?

Insiders

Sentiment in Bonds

Treasury Bond Futures Put/Call Ratio

Treasury Bond COT Data

Treasury Bond Primary Dealer Positions

T-Bill Rate Expectations by Money Market Fund Managers

Gold Sentiment

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 8. Measuring Market Strength

Chapter Objectives

Market Breadth

The Breadth Line or Advance-Decline Line

Double Negative Divergence

Traditional Advance-Decline Methods That No Longer Are Profitable

Advance-Decline Line to Its 32-Week Simple Moving Average

Breadth Differences

Breadth Ratios

Breadth Thrust

Summary of Breadth Indicators

Up and Down Volume Indicators

The Arms Index

Volume Thrust with Up Volume and Down Volume

Ninety Percent Downside Days (NPDD)

10-to-1 Up Volume Days and 9-to-1 Down Volume Days

Net New Highs and Net New Lows

New Highs Versus New Lows

High Low Logic Index

Hindenburg Omen

Using Moving Averages

Coppock Curve

Number of Stocks Above Their 30-Week Moving Average

Very Short-Term Indicators

Breadth and New Highs to New Lows

Net Ticks

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 9. Temporal Patterns and Cycles

Chapter Objectives

Periods Longer Than Four Years

Kondratieff Waves, or K-Waves

Population Waves

17–18-Year Alternating Stock Market Cycles

Decennial Pattern

Periods of Four Years or Less

Four-Year or Presidential Cycle

Election Year Pattern

Seasonal Patterns

January Signals

January Barometer

January Effect

Events

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 10. Flow of Funds

Chapter Objectives

Funds in the Marketplace

Money Market Funds

Margin Debt

Funds Outside the Security Market

Household Financial Assets

Money Supply (M1 & M2)

Money Velocity

Yield Curve

Bank Liquidity

The Cost of Funds and Alternative Investments

Short-Term Interest Rates

Long-Term Interest Rates (or Inversely, the Bond Market)

Corporate Bond and Stock Market Yield Spread

The Misery Indices

Fed Policy

The Federal Reserve Valuation Model

Federal Funds

Free Reserves

Three Steps and a Stumble and Two Tumbles and a Jump

Conclusion

Review Questions

Part III: Trend Analysis

Chapter 11. History and Construction of Charts

Chapter Objectives

History of Charting

What Data Is Needed to Construct a Chart?

What Types of Charts Do Analysts Use?

Line Charts

Bar Charts

Candlestick Charts

What Type of Scale Should Be Used?

Arithmetic Scale

Semi-Logarithmic Scale

Point and Figure Charts

One-Box (Point) Reversal

Box Size

Multibox Reversal

Time

Arithmetic Scale

Logarithmic Scale

Cloud Charts (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo)

Other Charting Methods Independent of Time

Kagi Chart

Renko Chart

Line-Break Chart (2 or 3 Lines)

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 12. Trends—The Basics

Chapter Objectives

Trend—The Key to Profits

Trend Terminology

Basis of Trend Analysis—Dow Theory

How Does Investor Psychology Impact Trends?

How Is the Trend Determined?

Peaks and Troughs

Determining a Trading Range

What Is Support and Resistance?

Why Do Support and Resistance Occur?

What About Round Numbers?

How Are Important Reversal Points Determined?

How Do Analysts Use Trading Ranges?

Directional Trends (Up and Down)

What Is a Directional Trend?

How Is an Uptrend Spotted?

Channels

Internal Trend Lines

Other Types of Trend Lines

Trend Lines on Point and Figure Charts

Speed Lines

Andrews Pitchfork

Gann Fan Lines

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 13. Breakouts, Stops, and Retracements

Chapter Objectives

Breakouts

How Is Breakout Confirmed?

Can a Breakout Be Anticipated?

Stops

What Are Entry and Exit Stops?

Changing Stop Orders

What Are Protective Stops?

What Are Trailing Stops?

What Are Time Stops?

What Are Money Stops?

How Can Stops Be Used with Breakouts?

Using Stops When Gaps Occur

Placing Stops for a False (or “Specialist”) Breakout

Retracements

Pullbacks and Throwbacks

Waiting for Retracement

Calculating a Risk/Return Ratio for Breakout Trading

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 14. Moving Averages

Chapter Objectives

What Is a Moving Average?

How Is a Simple Moving Average Calculated?

Length of Moving Average

Using Multiple Moving Averages

What Other Types of Moving Averages Are Used?

The Linearly Weighted Moving Average (LWMA)

The Exponentially Smoothed Moving Average (EMA)

Wilder Method

Geometric Moving Average (GMA)

Triangular Moving Average

Variable EMAs

Strategies for Using Moving Averages

Determining Trend

Determining Support and Resistance

Determining Price Extremes

Giving Specific Signals

What Is Directional Movement?

Constructing Directional Movement Indicators

Using Directional Movement Indicators

What Are Envelopes, Channels, and Bands?

Percentage Envelopes

Bands

Trading Strategies Using Bands and Envelopes

Channel

Conclusion

Review Questions

Part IV: Chart Pattern Analysis

Chapter 15. Bar Chart Patterns

Chapter Objectives

What Is a Pattern?

Common Pattern Characteristics

Do Patterns Exist?

Behavioral Finance and Pattern Recognition

Computers and Pattern Recognition

Market Structure and Pattern Recognition

Bar Charts and Patterns

How Profitable Are Patterns?

Classic Bar Chart Patterns

Double Top and Double Bottom

Rectangle (Also “Trading Range” or “Box”)

Triple Top and Triple Bottom

Standard Triangles

Descending Triangle

Ascending Triangle

Symmetrical Triangle (Also “Coil” or “Isosceles Triangle”)

Broadening Patterns

Diamond Top

Wedge and Climax

Patterns with Rounded Edges—Rounding and Head-and-Shoulders

Rounding Top, Rounding Bottom (Also “Saucer,” “Bowl,” or “Cup”)

Head-and-Shoulders

Shorter Continuation Trading Patterns—Flags and Pennants (Also “Half-Mast Formation”)

Long-Term Bar Chart Patterns with the Best Performance and the Lowest Risk of Failure

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 16. Point and Figure Chart Patterns

Chapter Objectives

What Is Different About a Point and Figure Chart?

Time and Volume Omitted

Continuous Price Flow Necessary

“Old” and “New” Methods

History of Point and Figure Charting

One-Box Reversal Point and Figure Charts

Consolidation Area on the One-Box Chart (Also “Congestion Area”)

Trend Lines in One-Box Charts

The Count in a One-Point Chart

Head-and-Shoulders Pattern

The Fulcrum

Action Points

Three-Point (or Box) Reversal Point and Figure Charts

Trend Lines with Three-Box Charts

The Count Using Three-Box Reversal Charts

The Eight Standard Patterns for Three-Box Reversal Charts

Other Patterns

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 17. Short-Term Patterns

Chapter Objectives

Pattern Construction and Determination

Traditional Short-Term Patterns

Gaps

Spike (or Wide-Range or Large-Range Bar)

Dead Cat Bounce (DCB)

Island Reversal

One- and Two-Bar Reversal Patterns

Other Multiple-Bar Patterns

Volatility Patterns

Intraday Patterns

Summary of Short-Term Patterns

Candlestick Patterns

One- and Two-Bar Candlestick Patterns

Multiple-Bar Patterns

Candlestick Pattern Results

Conclusion

Review Questions

Part V: Trend Confirmation

Chapter 18. Confirmation

Chapter Objectives

Analysis Methods

Overbought/Oversold

Failure Swings

Divergences

Reversals

Trend ID

Crossovers

Classic Patterns

Volume Confirmation

What Is Volume?

How Is Volume Portrayed?

Do Volume Statistics Contain Valuable Information?

How Are Volume Statistics Used?

Which Indexes and Oscillators Incorporate Volume?

Volume Spikes

Examples of Volume Spikes

Open Interest

What Is Open Interest?

Open Interest Indicators

Price Confirmation

What Is Momentum?

How Successful Are Momentum Indicators?

Specific Indexes and Oscillators

Conclusion

Review Questions

Part VI: Other Technical Methods and Rules

Chapter 19. Cycles

Chapter Objectives

What Are Cycles?

Other Aspects of Cycle Analysis

Translation

How Can Cycles Be Found in Market Data?

Fourier Analysis (Spectral Analysis)

Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis

Simpler (and More Practical) Methods

Projections

Projecting Period

Projecting Amplitude

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 20. Elliott, Fibonacci, and Gann

Chapter Objectives

Elliott Wave Theory (EWT)

Ralph Nelson Elliott

Basic Elliott Wave Theory

Impulse Waves

Corrective Waves

Guidelines and General Characteristics in EWT

Projected Targets and Retracements

Alternatives to EWT

Using EWT

The Fibonacci Sequence

Fibonacci

The Fibonacci Sequence

The Golden Ratio

Price and Time Targets

W. D. Gann

Conclusion

Review Questions

Part VII: Selection

Chapter 21. Selection of Markets and Issues: Trading and Investing

Chapter Objectives

Which Issues Should I Select?

Trading (Swing and Day)

Choosing Between Futures Markets and Stock Markets

Which Issues Should I Select for Investing?

Top-Down Analysis

Secular Emphasis

Cyclical Emphasis

Stock Market Industry Sectors

Bottom Up—Specific Stock Selection and Relative Strength

Relative Strength

Academic Studies of Relative Strength

Measuring Relative Strength

Examples of How Selected Professionals Screen for Favorable Stocks

William O’Neil CANSLIM Method

James P. O’Shaughnessy Method

Charles D. Kirkpatrick Method

Value Line Method

Richard D. Wyckoff Method

Conclusion

Review Questions

Part VIII: System Testing and Management

Chapter 22. System Design and Testing

Chapter Objectives

Why Are Systems Necessary?

Discretionary Versus Nondiscretionary Systems

A Complete Trading System

How Do I Design a System?

Requirements for Designing a System

Initial Decisions

Types of Technical Systems

How Do I Test a System?

Clean Data

Special Data Problems for Futures Systems

Testing Methods and Tools

Test Parameter Ranges

Optimization

Methods of Optimizing

Measuring System Results for Robustness

Conclusion

Review Questions

Chapter 23. Money and Portfolio Risk Management

Chapter Objectives

Risk and Money Management

Testing Money-Management Strategies

Money-Management Risks

Concepts

Reward to Risk

Normal Risks

Unusual Risks

Money-Management Risk Strategies

Protective Stop

Trailing Stop

Other Kinds of Stops

Targets

Execution

Monitoring Systems and Portfolios

If Everything Goes Wrong

Conclusion

Review Questions

Part IX: Appendices

Appendix A. Basic Statistics

Appendix Objectives

Returns

Probability and Statistics

Descriptive Statistics

Measures of Central Tendency

Measures of Dispersion

Relationships Between Variables

Inferential Statistics

Modern Portfolio Theory

Performance Measurement

Advanced Statistical Methods

Artificial Intelligence

Review Questions

Appendix B. Types of Orders and Other Trader Terminology

An Order Ticket

Bibliography

Index

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