Thinking and Reasoning An Introduction to the Psychology of Reason Judgment and Decision Making 1st edition by Ken Manktelow ISBN 1841697406 9781841697406
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ISBN 10: 1841697406
ISBN 13: 9781841697406
Author: Ken Manktelow
The area of psychological research reviewed in this book is one that is not only increasing in popularity in college curricula, but is also making an ever larger impact on the world outside the classroom. Drawing upon research originally cited in Ken Manktelow’s highly successful publication Reasoning and Thinking, this completely rewritten textbook reflects on the revolutionary changes that have occurred in the field in recent years, stemming from the huge expansion in research output, as well as new methods and explanations, and the appearance of numerous books on the subject aimed at the popular market. The main areas covered are probability judgment, deductive and inductive reasoning, decision making, hypothetical thinking and rationality. In each case, the material is almost entirely new, with topics such as the new paradigm in reasoning research, causal reasoning and counterfactual thinking appearing for the first time. The book also presents an extended treatment of decision making research, and contains a chapter on individual and cultural influences on thinking. Thinking and Reasoning provides a detailed, integrated and approachable treatment of this area of cognitive psychology, and is ideal reading for intermediate and advanced undergraduate students; indeed, for anyone interested in how we draw conclusions and make choices.
Thinking and Reasoning An Introduction to the Psychology of Reason Judgment and Decision Making 1st Table of contents:
1 Judging and thinking about probability
Defining probability
Logical possibility
Frequency
Propensity
Degree of belief
Belief revision: Bayes’ rule
Judging plain probabilities
Logical possibilities
Frequencies
Taking samples: where our information comes from
Belief updating
Base rates: neglect or respect?
Belief revision by natural frequencies
Probability from the inside and the outside
The planning fallacy
Overconfidence
The conjunction fallacy
Summary
2 The study of reasoning: classic research
The classical syllogism: reasoning with quantities
Validity
Reasoning with syllogisms
Patterns in human performance
Explaining the patterns of performance
Mental logic
Mental models
Probability heuristics
Summary
3 Reasoning with propositions
If: conditionals
Knowing p, knowing q: inferences and truth tables
Research results
The Wason selection task
Reasoning with Or: disjunctives
Research results
Wason’s THOG problem
Summary
4 Reasoning and meaning
Facilitation: the study of content effects
Deontic reasoning: thinking about rules
Pragmatic reasoning schemas
Evolutionary approaches to deontic reasoning
Decision-theoretic approaches
Causal reasoning: thinking about how the world works
Causal reasoning about general events
The covariational approach to causal thinking
Prior knowledge and causal models
Causal models theory
Single cases and counterfactual thinking
Summary
5 Explaining reasoning: the classic approaches
Mental logic
Braine and O’Brien’s theory of If
Rips’ Psycop theory
The theory of mental models
Mental models and conditionals
The selection task
Content and context
Illusory inferences
Causal and counterfactual reasoning
Summary
6 Explaining reasoning: the ‘new paradigm’
Oaksford and Chater’s Bayesian theory
Rational analysis
Matching bias
The deontic selection task
Conditional inference
Evans and Over’s suppositional theory
The dual process theory
Dual processes in the selection task
Belief bias in syllogistic reasoning
Heuristic and analytic processes
Dual processes and dual systems
Dual minds
Summary
7 Hypothetical thinking: induction and testing
Induction
Induction and deduction
Category-based induction
Extensions and explanations
Category-based induction without categories
Abduction: finding explanations and causes
Induction and deduction revisited
Hypothesis testing
Wason’s 2 4 6 task and its descendants
Confirmation bias
Better hypothesis testing
Hypothesis testing in the wild
Hypothetical thinking theory
Summary
8 Decision making: preference and prospects
Subjective expected utility
Principles and problems
Complex decisions
Preference
Different utilities
Competing options
Framing: the effects of description
Prospect theory: a descriptive theory of decision making
Mental accounting
Summary
9 Decisions in context
Paradoxes of choice
Too much of a good thing?
Decision dilemmas
Personal dilemmas
Social dilemmas
Deciding without thinking
Priming
Deciding through feeling
Fast and frugal decision processes
Intuition and expertise
Summary
10 Thinking, reasoning and you
Rationality
Bounded rationality
Satisficing
Dual rationality
Dual rationality and dilemmas
Rationality and personality
Individual differences and their implications
Dysrationalia
Delusional thinking: extreme irrationality
Thinking, reasoning and culture
Western and Eastern thinking
The roots of cultural influence
Culture and thought and the dual process theory
Summary
Notes
5 Explaining reasoning: the classic approaches
7 Hypothetical thinking: induction and testing
8 Decision making: preference and prospects
10 Thinking, reasoning and you
References
Author index
Subject index
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Tags: Ken Manktelow, An Introduction, Reason Judgment, Decision Making